国际经济学II---国际贸易实证研究

国际经济学II --- 国际贸易实证研究
2007年春季

何茵
中国经济研究中心620 62754054
答疑: Mondays 1:30-3:00 & 预约
@

课程简介


这门课旨在介绍如何将实证研究的方法– 计量、调查、投入- 产出分析、模拟、以
及实证一般均衡的方法– 用于估计国际经济学（主要是国际贸易）的理论。

在修这门课之前，你应该已经学过了国际贸易和经济计量学（包括时间序列分
析）。 下面是这门课的阅读材料。其中所包括的问题只是所有国际贸易问题的一部
分，所列文献也只是所有相关 文献的一小部分。列表中有星号的为必读，将在课上
由我或你们进行讲解。没有星号的作学习参考用。

考核方式


1. 文献综述（30%）：对某一个具体的国际贸 易问题做文献综述。题目可以是以
下所列的内容，也可以不再其范围内（但需与我讨论后决定）。对于这 一问题
的经典文献，综述应该对其分析方法作较为详尽的阐述和评论。文献综述旨在
为一篇实证 文章的选题和方法选择做准备。
2. Research proposal（40%）: 在文献综 述的基础上，进一步确定所要研究的方
向、具体问题、研究方法、以及数据来源。希望它能成为一篇可发 表文章或毕
业论文的一部分。
3. 总结汇报（10%）：在课上将自己的research proposal进行报告，征求大家的建
议，以获得改进。
4. 课堂参与（20%）：对 课程进行中要求的必读文献进行报告和讨论，每人报告
的文章数量与选课人数成反比。同时积极参与课堂 讨论。


教科书


Bowen, Hollander, and Viaene (BHV), Applied International Trade Analysis (U. of
Michigan Press, 1998).




1

参考文献

I.

Introduction: Measurement and Data Sources: 1周
*BHV, Chapter 1

*R. Ballance, et al, “Consistency Tests of Alternative Measures of Comparative
Advantage,” Rev. of Economics and Statistics, Feb. 1987, 157-161

*K. Maskus, “Comparing International Trade Data and Product and National
Characteristics Data for the Analysis of Trade Models,” in Hooper and
Richardson, eds., International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement
and Empirical Research, 1991, 17-56 (hereafter IET)

*R.C. Feenstra, et al,
working paper 9387, December 2002.


Testing Trade Theories, Part 1: 2-5周
A. Surveys:

*E. Leamer and J. Levinsohn, “International Trade Theory: the Evidence” in
Grossman and Rogoff, eds., Handbook of International Economics Vol. 3, 1341-
1345.

*J. Harrigan,
Laws?

A.V. Deardorff, “Testing Trade Theories and Predicting Trade Flows,” in Jones
and Kenen, eds., Handbook of International Economics Vol. 1, 1984, 467-518.

E. Helpman, “Explaining the Structure of Foreign Trade: Where do We Stand?”
manuscript, 1998


B. Ricardian Model:

*BHV, Chapter 3.6

*S. Golub and C. Hsieh, “Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage
Revisited,” Review of International Economics, May 2000, 221-234.


C. Factor-Proportions Model:

II.

2

*BHV, Chapter 4.4 and Chapter 8

E. Leamer, Sources of International Comparative Advantage, (MIT Press, 1984)

R. Stern and K. Maskus, “Determinants of the Structure of U.S. Foreign Trade,
1958-76” J. of International Economics, May 1981, 207-224.

*H. Bowen, et al, “Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance
Theory,” American Economic Review, Dec. 1987, 791-809.

*D. Trefler, “The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries” American
Economic Review, December 1995, 1029-1046.

D. Davis, et al, “Using International and Japanese Regional data to Determine
when the Factor Abundance Theory of Trade Works” American Economic Review,
June 1997, 421-446.

*J. Harrigan, “Technology, Factor Supplies, and International Specialization:
Estimating the Neoclassical Model,” American Economic Review, September
1997, 475-494.

*D. Davis and D. Weinstein, “An Account of Global Factor Trade,” American
Economic Review, December 2001, 1423-1453.

K. Maskus, “A Test of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theorem: the Leontief
Commonplace,” Journal of International Economics, Nov. 1985, 201-212.

J. Harrigan, “Factor Endowments and the International Location of Production:
Econometric Evidence for the OECD, 1970-1985,” J. of International Economics,
August 1995, 123-141.

Dan Trefler, “International Factor Price Differences: Leontief Was Right!” J. of
Political Economy, December 1993, 961-987.

X. Gabaix, “The Factor Content of Trade: A Rejection of the Heckscher-Ohlin-
Leontief Hypothesis,” manuscript, 1997.


D. Gravity Models: Feb 12-19

*J. Frankel, E. Stein, and S. Wei, “Trading Blocs and the Americas: The Natural,
the Unnatural and the Super-Natural,” Journal of Development Economics 1995,
61-95.

J. Bergstrand, “The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some
Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Review of Economics and
Statistics 1985, 474-481.
3

*J. Bergstrand, “The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition,
and the Factor- Proportions Theory in International Trade,” Rev. of Economics and
Statistics 1989, 143-153.

*S. Evenett and W. Keller,
Equation,Journal of Political Economy 2002, 281-316.

J. Anderson, “A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” American
Economic Review 1979, 106-116.

A. Deardorff, “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a
Neoclassical World?” in J. Frankel, ed., The Regionalization of the World
Economy, 1997.

*J. McCallum, “National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns,”
American Economic Review, June 1995, 615-623.
C. Evans, “Do National Border Effects Matter?” manuscript, 1998.
*J. Anderson and E. van Wincoop,
Border Puzzle,American Economic Review (forthcoming), NBER working paper
8079, January 2001.

E. Balistreri and R. Hillberry,
Puzzle, Comment,

J. Anderson and E. van Wincoop,
paper 8515, October 2001.

J. Harrigan, “OECD Imports and Trade Barriers in 1983,” Journal of
International Economics, August 1993, 92-111.

K. Maskus and M. Penubarti, “How Trade-Related are Intellectual Property
Rights?J. of International Economics November 1995, 227-248.


III. Testing Trade Theories, Part 2: 6-8周

E. Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and Bilateral Trade Flows:

*E. Helpman, “Imperfect Competition and International Trade: Evidence from 14
Countries,” Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 1987, 62-81.

*D. Hummels and J. Levinsohn, “Monopolistic Competition and International
Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence,” Quarterly J. of Economics 1995, 799-836.

4

*J. Harrigan, “Scale Economies and the Volume of Trade,” Rev. of Economics
and Statistics, May 1994, 283-293.

W. Antweiler and D. Trefler,
Trade,American Economic Review March 2002, 93-119.


F. Other Theories:

*B. Balassa, “Intra-Industry Specialization: A Cross-Country Analysis,”
European Economic Review, 1986, 27-42.

R. Feenstra, “Gains from Trade in Differentiated Products: Japanese Compact
Trucks,” in Feenstra, EMIT, 119-136.

J. Levinsohn and R. Feenstra, “Identifying the Competition,” J. of International
Economics, May 1990, 199-216.

*L. Hunter, “The Contribution of Nonhomothetic Preferences to Trade,” J. of
International Economics, May 1991, 345-358.

L. Hunter and J. Markusen, “Per-Capita Income as a Determinant of Trade, “ in
Feenstra, ed., Empirical Methods for International Trade (MIT Press), 1988, 119-
136 (book hereafter called EMIT).

J. Bergstrand, “The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem, the Linder Hypothesis, and the
Volume and Pattern of International Trade,” Economic Journal, Dec. 1990, 1216-
1229.

P. Armington, “A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of
Production,” IMF Staff Papers, March 1969, 159-177.

*D. Hummels,
ultyhummelsd

R. Feenstra and A. Rose,
Cycles,Review of Economics and Statistics August 2000, 369-382.


G. Export Dynamics:

*A. Bernard and J.B. Jensen, “Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect,
or Both?” Journal of International Economics 1999, 1-26.

*M. Roberts and J. Tybout, “The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical
Model of Entry with Sunk Costs,” American Economic Review 1997, 545-564.
5

IV.


J. Tybout,
manuscript, March 2001.


International Trade, Growth, and Spillovers: 9-11周
BHV, Chapter 14.

Gene Grossman and E. Helpman, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy
(MIT Press), 1991.

R. Barro and X. Sala-I-Martin, Economic Growth (McGraw Hill), 1995.

R. Barro, Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,” Quarterly J. of
Economics May 1991, 407-443.

*G. Mankiw, D. Romer and D. Weil, “A Contribution to the Empirics of
Economic Growth,” Quarterly J. of Economics, May 1992, 407-437.

*R. Levine and D. Renelt, “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth
Regressions,” American Economic Review, Sept. 1992, 942-963.

D. Dollar, “Outward- Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More
Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985,” Economic Development aAnd
Cultural Change, 1992, 523-544.

D. Ben-David, “Trade and Convergence Among Countries,” J. of International
Economics May 1996, 279-298.

*J. Frankel and D. Romer, American Economic
Review June 1999, 379-399.

*D. Coe, E. Helpman and A. Hoffmaister, “North-South R&D Spillovers,”
Economic Journal 1997, 134-149.

*W. Keller,
American Economic Review March 2002, 120-142.

*David Greenaway, Wyn Morgan, and Peter Wright,
“Trade liberalisation
and growth in developing countries,” J. of Development Economics, Vol. 67, 2002,
pp. 229–244

*Markus Taube, “Spillover- effects, crowding-in and the contributions of FDI to
growth in China：A Review of the Literature”

6

V.


Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: 12-13周
BHV, Chapter 11.

S. Grubaugh, “Determinants of Direct Foreign Investment,” Rev. of Economics
and Statistics, Feb. 1987, 149-151.

*S.L. Brainard, “An Empirical Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration
Tradeoff between Multinational Sales and Trade,” American Economic Review
1997, 520-544.

*D. Carr, J. Markusen, and K. Maskus, “Estimating the Knowledge Capital
Model of the Multinational Enterprise,” American Economic Review June 2001,
693-708.

James R. Markusen and Keith E. Maskus,
the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and Evidence,
paper number 8334


J. Markusen, “The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of
International Trade,” J. of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1995, 169-189.

K. Head, J. Ries, and D. Swenson, “Agglomeration Benefits and Location Choice:
Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing Investments in the United States,” J. of
International Economics May 1995, 223-248.

*B. Blonigen,
Exports,Journal of International Economics 2001, 81-104.

B. Blonigen, Journal of International
Economics June 2002, 31-50.

*Leonard K. Cheng and Yum K. Kwan, “What are the determinants of the
location of foreign direct investment? The Chinese experience,” J. of
International Economics Aug. 2000 pp.379-400


Empirical Trade Policy Analysis: 14-17周

A. Theoretical Introduction: April 9

BHV, Chapters 5 and 10.

*J. Francois and K. Reinert, eds., Applied Methods for Trade Policy Analysis
(Cambridge U. Press), 1997, chs. 1-3 (hereafter AMTPA).
VI.
7

*D. Brown, “Tariffs, the Terms of Trade, and National Product Differentiation,” J.
of Policy Modelling, 1987, 503-526.

R. Feenstra, “Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy,” in Grossman and Rogoff,
eds., Handbook of International Economics: Vol. 3 (North-Holland), 1995, 1553-
1596.

R. Baldwin, “Trade Policies in Developed Countries,” in R. Jones and P. Kenen,
eds., Handbook of International Economics: Vol. 1 (North-Holland), 1984, 571-
619 (hereafter HIE1).

Anne Krueger, “Trade Policies in Developing Countries,” in HIE1, 519-569.


B. Partial- Equilibrium Models: April 14

*J. Francois and K. Hall, “Partial Equilibrium Modeling,” in AMTPA, ch. 5.

*G. Hufbauer and K. Elliott, Measuring the Costs of Protection in the United
States (Institute for International Economics), 1994, chapters 1-2.

E. Dinopoulos and M. Kreinin, “Effects of the US-Japan Auto VER on European
Prices and U.S. Welfare,” Rev. of Economics and Statistics, August 1998, 484-
491.

*B. Aw Roberts, “Estimating the Effect of Quantitative Restrictions in
Imperfectly Competitive Markets: the Footwear Case,” in R. Baldwin, ed.,
Empirical Studies of Commercial Policy (U of Chicago Press), 1991, 201-213
(hereafter ESCP).


A. Dixit, “Optimal Trade and Industrial Policies for the U.S. Automobile
Industry,” in Feenstra, ed., EMIT, 141-165.

*D. Rodrik, “Imperfect Competition, Scale Economies, and Trade Policy in
Developing Countries,” in R. Baldwin, ed., Trade Policy Issues and Empirical
Analysis (U of Chicago Press), 1988, 109-137 (hereafter TPIEA).

P. Krugman and A. Smith, eds., Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy (U of
Chicago Press), 1991.


Computational General Equilibrium Models of Trade Liberalization: April 16-24

C.
8

*K. Reinert and D. Roland-Holst, “Social Accounting Matrices,” in AMTPA, ch.
4.

*S. Devarajan, et al, “Simple General Equilibrium Modeling,” in AMTPA, ch. 6.

J. Shoven and J. Whalley, Applying General Equilibrium (Cambridge Univ.
Press), chapters 4-5.

R. Harris, “Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with
Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition,” American Economic Review 1984,
1016-1032.

J. de Melo and D. Tarr, A General Equilibrium Analysis of US Foreign Trade
Policy (MIT Press), 1992.

*D. Brown and R. Stern, “US-Canada Bilateral Tariff Elimination: The Role of
Product Differentiation and Market Structure,” in R. Feenstra, ed., Trade Policies
for International Competitiveness (U of Chicago Press), 1989, 217-245.

*T. Hertel, E. Ianchovichina, and B. McDonald, “Multi- Region General
Equilibrium Modeling,” in AMTPA, ch. 9.

*D. Konan and K. Maskus, “Joint Trade Liberalization and Tax Reform in a
Small Open Economy: The Case of Egypt,” Journal of Development Economics
April 2000, 365-392.

*T. Rutherford and D. Tarr,
a Small Open Economy: A Quantitative Assessment,Journal of International
Economics March 2002, 247-272.

C. Shiells, A. Deardorff, and R. Stern, “Estimates of the Elasticities of
Substitution between Imports and Home Goods for the United States,”
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1986, 497-519.

T.N. Srinivasan and J. Whalley, eds., General Equilibrium Trade Policy
Modelling (MIT Press), 1986.

J. de Melo, “Computable General Equilibrium Models for Trade Policy Analysis
in Developing Countries: A Survey,” J. of Policy Modelling, 1988, 469-503.

J. Francois and K. Reinert, AMTPA, balance of book.





9

VII. Trade and Exchange Rates: 18周

*BHV, chapter 13

*M. Knetter, “International Comparisons of Pricing-to-Market Behavior,”
American Economic Review 1992, 473-486.

*R. Feenstra, “Symmetric Pass- Through of Tariffs and Exchange Rates under
Imperfect Competition: An Empirical Test,” Journal of International Economics
1989, 25-45.


VIII. Other Topics

A. Endogenous Trade Policy

A. Bohara and W. Kaempfer, “A Test of Tariff Endogeneity in the United States,”
American Economic Review, Sept. 1991, 952-960.

D. Trefler, “Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An
Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy,” J. of Political Economy 1993, 138-160.

T. Prusa, “Why Are So Many Antidumping Petitions Withdrawn?” J. of
International Economics 1992, 1-20.

K. Gawande and U. Bandyopadhyay,
Grossman- Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection,Review of Economics
and Statistics February 2000, 139-152.

K. Gawande, “Testing Theories of Endogenous Protection: Robust Evidence from
U.S. Nontariff Barrier Data,” in K. Maskus, et al, eds., Quiet Pioneering: Robert
M. Stern and His International Economic Legacy, (U of Michigan Press), 1997,
37-70.


B. Trade and Labor Markets

R. Lawrence and M. Slaughter, “International Trade and American Wages in the
1980s: Giant Sucking Sound or Small Hiccup?” Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity: Microeconomics 2 1993, 161-226.

E. Leamer, “A Trade Economist’s View of U.S. Wages and Globalization,”
manuscript, 1995.

10

Ana Revenga, “Exporting Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on
Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing,” Quarterly J. of Economics, Feb.
1992, 255-282.

Adrian Wood, “How Trade Hurt Unskilled Workers,” J. of Economic
Perspectives, Summer 1995, 57-80.

R. Feenstra and G. Hanson, “The Exact Measurement of Productivity,
Outsourcing and Its Impact on Wages: Estimates for the U.S., 1972-1990,”
manuscript, 1996.

B. Aitken, A. Harrison, and R. Lipsey, “Wages and Foreign Ownership: A
Comparative Study of Mexico, Venezuela, and the United States,” J. of
International Economics, May 1996, 345-372.

G. Hanson and M. Slaughter,
Evidence from US States,Journal of International Economics June 2002, 3-30.


C. Trade, Environment, and Other Issues

W. Antweiler, B. Copeland, and M.S. Taylor, “Is Free Trade Good for the
Environment?” American Economic Review September 2001, 877-908.

S-J Wei, Review of
Economics and Statistics February 2000, 1-11.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2000), International
Trade and Core Labor Standards, Paris: OECD.

11