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fork怎么读03不确定性、进化和经济理论(中英)

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2021-01-19 07:15
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2021年1月19日发(作者:桦树液)


UNCERTAINTY, EVOLUTION, AND ECONOMIC
THEORY
不确定性、进化和经济理论

ARMEN A. ALCHIAN
University of California at Los Angeles
A modification of economic analysis to incorporate incomplete information and
uncertain foresight as axioms is suggested here.

本文提出一种经过改进的经济分析方法,
以将不完全信息和不确定预知作 为不言自明的客观存在引入经济分析。
This approach
dispenses with ―profit maximization‖; and it does not rely on the predictable,
individual behavior that is usually assumed, as a first approximation, in standard
textbook treatments.

这一分析方法扬弃 了“利润极大化”

同时放弃了个体行为的可推测性,
而在一般的教科书中,个体行为 的可推测性通常被假定为一个最基本的条件。
Despite these
changes, the analytical concepts usually associated with such behavior are retained
because they are not dependent upon such motivation or foresight. < br>尽管作了上述两点修
正,
但进行这类行为分析时常用的那些概念仍旧保留下来,
因为这些分析概念本身并不依赖于这
种动机或预见。
The suggested approach embodies the principles of biological evolution
and natural selection by interpreting the economic system as an adoptive mechanism
which chooses among exploratory actions generated by the adaptive pursuit of
―success‖ or ―profit.‖
这里提出的这种分析方法吸收了生物进化和 自然选择原理,
把经济体系
解释为一个甄别机制,这一机制具有甄选那些试图追逐“成功”或利 润“的适应性行为的功能。
The resulting analysis is applicable to actions usually regarded as aberrations from
standard economic behavior as well as to behavior covered by the customary analysis.
用这一方法,
不仅能对那些通常被视为异常的经济行为进行分析,
而且亦适用于传统分析所包括
的一切行为分析。
This wider applicability and the removal of the unrealistic postulates
of accurate anticipations and fixed states of kno
wledge have provided motivation for the study.
这一分析方法剔除了“精确预期”和
“固态知识”这两个不真 实的假说,其更广泛的适用性为经济学研究提供了动力。

The exposition is ordered as follows: First, to clear the ground, a brief statement
is
given
of
a
generally
ignored
aspect
of
―profit
maximization,‖
that
is,
where
foresight is uncertain, ―profit maximization‖ is meaningless as a guid
e to specifiable
action.
本文将进行的阐释如下:首先,需要明确的是,< br>“利润最大化”有一个方面的简要阐述
被普遍忽略了,即,当预见具有不确定性的时候,
“利润最大化”作为某一具体行动的指导是没
有什么意义的。
The constructive development then begins with an introduction of the
element
of
environmental
adoption
by
the
economic
system
of
a
posteriori
most
appropriate action according to the criterion of ―realized positive profits.‖
其次,
建设性
的发展起自一个环境选择原理的引入,
这 个环境选择原理是一个后验的经济体系,
其最适宜行为
依据的是“实现净利润”而非“利润最大 化”准则。
This
is
illustrated
in
an
extreme,
random-behavior
model
without
any
individual
rationality,
foresight,
or
motivation
whatsoever.

Even in this extreme type of model, it is shown that the economist can
predict and explain events with a modified use of his conventional analytical tools.

表明了即使在没有丝毫个体理性、
预见性或者动机性的极端随机行为 模型中,
经济学家也能够通
过对传统分析工具进行的一些修正,来预测和解释事件。

This phenomenon

environmental adoption

is then fused with a type of
individual motivated behavior based on the pervasiveness of uncertainty and
incomplete information.
再次,在普遍存在不确定性和不完全信息的世界中,环境选择这一
现象和一类个体的动机性行为相融合。
Adaptive, imitative, and trial-and-error behavior in
the pursuit of ―positive profits‖ is utilized rather than its sharp contrast, the pursuit of
―maximized profits.‖
对照利润最大化的追求,在净利润追求过程中的那些适应性、模仿性和
试 错性行为将被更好的利用。
A final section discusses some implications and conjectures.

最后,本文将讨论基于这些原理的一些影响及推测。


.

PROFIT MAXIMIZATION

NOT A GUIDE TO ACTION
I.
利润最大化并非是行动的指导

Current economic analysis of economic behavior relies heavily on decisions
made by rational units customarily assumed to be seeking perfectly optimal situations.
当今经济分析中,
经济行为严重依赖于理性单位所 做的决定,
即在传统假设中,
理性个体总是谋
求一个完美的最优情况。
Two criteria are well known

profit maximization and utility
maximization.
这个最优情况有两个众所周知的准则:利润最大化和效用最大化。
According
to these criteria, appropriate types of action are indicated by marginal or
neighborhood inequalities which, if satisfied, yield an optimum.
根据这两个标准,当边
际上或者临域间(收益)不相等的时候,人们就总是 会有相宜类型的(改进)行动,直到最终达
成最优状况。
But the standard qualification usually added is that nobody is able really to
optimize his situation according to these diagrams and concepts because of
uncertainty about the position and, sometimes, even the slopes of the demand and
supply functions.

然而,标准的限定条件通常表明,因为个体并不清楚关于自身所处地位 的状
况和供给需求函数的斜率,所以通常没有人真能根据这些图表或概念从而最优化其自身的境况。
Nevertheless, the economist interprets and predicts the decisions of individuals in
terms of these diagrams, since it is alleged that individuals use these concepts
implicitly, if not explicitly.
尽管如此,经济学家对于个体决定的解释和推断仍然基于这些图表和概念,
因为经济学家们断言,
个体即便不是明确地,
也会在无意识进行选择时 使用这些图表
或者概念。

Attacks on this methodology are widespread, but only one attack has been really
damaging, that of r.
对这个方法 论的抨击是非常广泛和普遍的,但是只有一个抨击
是真正具有毁灭性的,
来自
r
教授。
He denies that profit maximization even makes
any sense where there is uncertainty.
他认为由于不确定性的存在,利润最大化已经变的毫
无意义。
Uncertainty arises from at least two sources: imperfect foresight and human
inability
to
solve
complex
problems
containing
a
host
of
variables
even
when
an
optimum is definable.
即使“最优化”可被定义,但不确定性至少仍来源于两方面:
1


不完
美的预见性;
2

面对复杂或者包含多变量的问题时,
人类的能 力是十分有限的。
Tintner’s proof
is
simple.
Under
uncertainty,
by
definition,
each
action
that
may
be
chosen
is
identified
with
a
distribution
of
potential
outcomes,
not
with
a
unique
outcome.
Tintner
教授的论据很简单,根据定义,在不确定性下,每 一个可能被选择的行动都将被等同于
由众多潜在结果组成的一个(概率)分布,这意味着结果并不唯一。
Implicit in uncertainty is
the consequence that these distributions of potential outcomes are overlapping.
这也暗
含着,不确定性会使得潜在的众多结果的(概率)分布会重叠起来。
It is worth emphasis that
each possible action has a distribution of potential outcomes, only one of which will
materialize if the action is taken, and that one outcome cannot be foreseen.
值得强调的
是,每一个可能的行动都会对应一个由众多潜在结果组成的(概率)分布,当某一行动被实施,
分布中的一个结果就会被具体化
(Materialize)
,而这个(被具体化的)结果是难 以被预知的。
Essentially, the task is converted into making a decision (selecting and action) whose
potential
outcome
distribution
is
preferable,
that
is,
choosing
the
action
with
the
optimum distribution, since there is no such thing as a maximizing distribution.
本质
上,这个任务将被转变为这样一个 过程,即某人依据对潜在结果(概率)
分布的偏好做出一个决
定(选择并行动)
,这也 意味着,这个人所能做的只是选择一个最优的(概率)分布,因为无法
对一个“概率分布”进行最大化或 最优化。

For example, let each of two possible choices be characterized by its subjective
distribution
of

potential
outcomes.
例如,分别将两种可能的选择逐一描述为主观下潜在结
果的(概 率)分布。
Suppose one has the higher ―mean‖ but a larger spread, so that it
might
result
in
larger
profits
or
losses,
and
the
other
has
a
smaller
―mean‖
and
a
smaller spread.
设想其中一个分布有较高的均值但是分布非常广,
这意味着结果不是大规模盈
利就是大规模亏损;
而另一个选择的平均值较小但分布相对窄。
Which one is the maximum?
This is a nonsensical question; but to ask for the optimum distribution is not nonsense.
若此,哪一个是最优选择呢?这成了一个没有意义的问题;但是, 要求一个最优(概率)分布不
是没有意义的。
In the presence of uncertainty

a necessary condition for the existence of
profits

there
is
no
meaningful
criterion
for
selecting
the
decision
that
will
―maximize
profit.‖

故而当存在不 确定性的时候——因为不确定性是利润存在的一个必要条
件——让人们进行一个选择,而这个选择所谓的 能够“最大化其利润”就变毫无意义了。

The
maximum-profit criterion is not meaningful as a basis for selecting the action which
will, in fact, result in an outcome with higher profits than any other action would have,
unless one assumes nonoverlapping potential outcome distributions. 事实上,除非假定
没有重叠的潜在结果的(概率)分布,否则将“最大化利润”这一准则作为优于任 何行动选择的
原则都是没有什么意义的。
It
must
be
noticed
t
hat
the
meaningfulness
of
―maximum
profits

a realized outcome which is the largest
that could have been realized from
the
available
actions‖—is
perfectly
consistent
with
the
meaninglessness
of
―profit
maximization‖—
a
criterion
for
selecting
among
alternative
lines
of
action,
the
potential outcomes of which are describable only as distributions and not as unique
amounts.
必须要注意的是,
在这个意义下得 到的
“最大化利润——即可以被现有行为实现的最
大的利润结果”——正好完美的与前面我们所 说的那没有什么意义的“利润最大化”相一致了。
所以,
利润最大化可以看成这样一种准则,< br>即一个在可选的活动形式中进行挑选而其潜在结果只
可描述为非唯一数量的概率分布的准则。
This crucial difficulty would be avoided by using a preference function as a
criterion for selecting most preferred distributions of potential outcomes, but the
search for a criterion of rationality and choice in terms of preference functions still
continues.
这一具有 决定性的难点却通过一个简单的偏好函数而被回避掉了。这个偏好函数是
作为一个选择最佳潜在结果概率 分布的准则出现的,但是我们还始终难以查探清两件事清:
1

理性准则;
2
)有关偏好函数方面的选择标准。
For example, the use of the mean, or
expectation, completely begs the question of uncertainty by disregarding the variance
of the distribution, while a ―certainty equivalent‖ assumes the answer.
例如, 只期望用
平均数或期望的来完全应对不确定性问题但漠视概率分布的方差,
而这却是用一个
确定性的等
价物

假定的给出了答案
(而并非不确定性)
The only way to make ―profit maximization‖
a specially meaningful action is to postulate a model containing certainty. Then the
question of the predictive and explanatory reliability of the model must be faced.

所< br>以,唯一能够赋予

利润最大化

一个特别意义的行动是假定一个包含 确定性的模型。
随后我们
必须面对问题的可预测性和模型解释的可靠性。


. SUCCESS IS BASED ON RESULTS, NOT MOTIVATION
II.
成功是基于结果而非动机

There is an alternative method which treats the decisions and criteria dictated by
the economic system as more important than those made by the individuals in it.

此时
有一个替代方法,
即认为经济 系统的决策和准则比其中的个体要重要的多。

By backing away
from the trees

the optimization calculus by individual units

we can better discern
the forest of impersonal

market forces.

人们常常只见树木而不见森林——专注于个体单位< br>进行最优化计算,
而这导致了我们难以更好的识别非人格化的市场力量。
This approach directs
attention
to
the
interrelationships
of
the
environment
and
the
prevailing
types
of
economic behavior which appear through a process of economic natural selection.

一方式将我们的注意力引向优势的经济行为和环境之间的相互联系,
即通过一个
“经济自然选择”
的过程而展现出来。
Yet
it
does
not
imply
that
individual
foresight
and
action
do
not
affect the nature of the existing state of affairs.
当然,
这并不意味着个体的预见和行动不能
影响那些自然存在的状态。

In
an
economic
system
the
realization
of
profits
is
the
criterion
according
to
which successful and surviving firms are selected.
在 一个经济体系中,
利润的实现是一个
准则,这个准则是按照“哪些公司能够成功存活下来”进行 的筛选。
This decision criterion is
applied primarily by
an
impersonal
market
system
in
the United States
and may be
completely independent of the decision processes of individual units, of the variety of
inconsistent
motives
and
abilities,
and
even
of
the
individual’s
awareness
of
the
criterion.

这一決策准则在美国最先被应用于一个非人格化的市场体系中 ,
这一准则可能是完全
脱离个体单位决策过程的,
并且与繁杂的非连续性动机和能力无 关,
甚至不管个体单位是否意识
到这一准则。

The reason is simple. Realized positive profits, not maximum profits, are
the mark of success and viability.
原因很简单。实现净利润是成功和生存能力的标志,而不
是最大化利润。
It does not matter through what process of reasoning or motivation such
success was achieved.
对于达到某种程度的成功,
无所谓其依据的是怎样的推理过程或动机。
The fact of its accomplishment is sufficient.
“具有成就”
这一事实本身就已经足够了。
This
is
the
criterion
by
which
the
economic
system
selects
survivors:
those
who
realize
positive profits are the survivors; those who suffer losses disappear.
这是经济系統筛选
幸存者的一种准则,即,那些能够实现净利润的成为 幸存者;而遭受损失的则会自动消失。

The
pertinent
requirement

positive
profits
through
relative
efficiency

is
weaker than ―maximized profits,‖ with which, unfortunately, it has been confused. < br>然
而,遗憾的是,相对效率下净利润的相关要求要低于“利润最大化”
,这使得人们感到 困惑。
Positive profits accrue to those who are better than their actual competitors, even if
the participants are ignorant, intelligent, skilful, etc.
净利润归属于那些在竞争者中出类拔
萃的人,而无所谓参与者是 愚蠢的,聪明的,还是娴熟的。
the
crucial
element
is
one’s
aggregate
position
relative
to
actual
competitors,
not
some
hypothetically
perfect
competitors.
决定性要素是实际竞争者在总体之中的相对地位,这意味着纵然所 有的竞争者都
是废柴也无所谓。
As in a race, the award goes to the relatively fastest, even if all the
competitors loaf.
这就好比一场赛跑,即使所有参赛选手都慢不经心,那 个相比之下跑得最快
的选手就会得奖。
Even in a world of stupid men there would still be profits. Also, the
greater the uncertainties of the world, the greater is the possibility that profits would
go to venturesome and lucky rather than to logical, careful, fact-gathering individuals.
即使在一个白痴的世界中,
也仍然会有利润。
而当世界之中的不确定性越大,
则利润更 可能的被
那些敢于冒险的幸运之人攫取,而非那些理性的、细心的、务实的人。

The preceding interpretation suggests two ideas. First, success (survival)
accompanies relative superiority; and, second, it does not require proper motivation
but may rather be the result of fortuitous circumstances.

前面 的解释暗含了两个意思。第
一,成功(幸存)常常意味着相对优等;第二,并不需要所谓合理的动机,而 更可能是一个具有
偶然性的
(优势)
环境结果罢了。
Among all competitors, those whose particular conditions
happen to be the most appropriate of those offered to the economic system for testing
and adoption will be ―selected‖ as
survivors.

在所有竞争者中,
那些具有特殊条件的人恰好
成为了在这个经济体系下最适宜的竞争者 ,这些幸存者是通过了环境的考验和采纳而“被选择”
的。

Just how such an approach can be used and how individuals happen to offer these
appropriate forms for testing are problems to which we now turn.

下面,我们转向研究
“如何应用这样的方式”以及“个体如何碰巧提供适当条件供经济系统进行选择” 。


. CHANCE OR LUCK IS ONE METHOD OF ACHIEVING SUCCESS
III.
偶然性和运气是一种达到成功的方式

Sheer chance is a substantial element in determining the situation selected and
also in determining its appropriateness or viability.
在进行环境筛选以及测定
( 个体)
适宜
性或生存能力时,绝对的偶然性是一个基本要素。
A second element is the ability to adapt
one’s self by various methods to an appropriate situation.
第二个要素则是在相应情况下,
个体自我多变的适应能力。
In order to indicate clearly the respective roles of luck and
conscious adapting, the adaptive calculus will, for the moment, be completely
removed. < br>为了清楚的阐述“运气”和“自主适应”各自的作用,我们暂且先将这种关于自主
适应的演算完全 抛开。
All individual rationality, motivation, and foresight will be
temporarily abandoned in order to concentrate upon the ability of the environment to
adopt
―appropriate‖ survivors even in the absence of any adaptive behavior.
所有个体
的理性、
动机和前瞻性也将被暂时的放到一边,
这样我们可以集中讨论环境的力量,
以便在缺乏
任何适应性行为的环境下,
也可以选 择出合适的幸存者。
This is an apparently unrealistic, but
nevertheless very useful, expository approach in establishing the attenuation between
the ex post survival criterion and the role of the individual’s adaptive decision
criterion.
虽然这个假设和真实世界相去甚远,
然而需要说明的是,
这个假设仍然非常有用,即,
我们的解释方式是通过弱化“事后生存准则”和“个体适应性决策准则作用”
之间的关 系而建立
的。
It also aids in assessing the role of luck and chance in the operation of our
economic system.
另外,这个处理非常有助于我们评估运气和偶然性在我们 的经济运行运行
过程中的作用。

Consider, first, the simplest type of biological evolution.
首先,
让我们考虑最简单的
生物演化类型。
Plants ―grow‖ to the sunny side of buildings not because the ―want to ‖
in
awareness
of
the
fact
that
optimum
or
better
conditions
prevail
there
but
rather
because the leaves that
happen to
have more sunlight
grow
faster and their feeding
systems become stronger.
植物生 长在室外的阳光下,
并非是因为它们
“想要”
意识到某种
“最
优”< br>的事实或者认为阳光下是更优的条件,
而是因为叶子恰好能在阳光下更快速的生长并使得它










Similarly,
animals
with
configurations
and
habits
more
appropriate
for
survival
under
prevailing
conditions
have
an
enhanced
viability
and
will with higher probability be typical survivors.
同样在一般 环境下,
动物的那些适宜于生
存的构造和习性,使得它们具有了强大的生存能力
,并且这也会使得它们更大可能的在以后也存
活下去。
Less appropriately acting organisms of the same general class having lower
probabilities of survival will find survival difficult.
而那些行动并不适宜的同类生物体则会
发现它们的生存是非常困难的,
即它们的存活概率较低。
More common types, the survivors,
may appear to be those having adapted themselves to
the environment,
whereas the
truth may well be that the environment has adopted them.
还有更多普遍的类型,幸存者
可能显出来的是它们对于环境的适应能力,
然而事实更可能是环境已经选择采纳了它们。
Th ere
may
have
been
mo
motivated
individual
adapting
but,
instead,
only
environmental
adopting.
所以,这意味着没有什么动机性的个体适应,有的只是环境的选择接纳。

A
useful,
but
unreal,
example
in
which
individuals
act
without
any
foresight
indicate
the
type
of
analysis
available
to
the
economist
and
also
the
ability
of
the
system to ―direct‖ resources despite individual ignorance,

一个 有用但并不真实的假设,
例如上面所说的,
没预见性的个体行动意味着个体无知时,
经 济学家的分析模式和系统指导资源
的能力仍然是有效的。
assume that thousands of travelers set out from Chicago, selecting
their roads completely at random and without foresight.
假设千百名旅者从芝加哥出发,
完全没有什么预见性的随机选择各自的道路。
Only our ―economist‖ knows that on but one
road are there and gasoline stations.
只有我们的经济学家知道一条路上有加油站。
He can
state
categorically
that
travelers
will
continue
to
travel
only
on
that
road;
those
on
other roads will soon run out of gas.
他完全可以直截了当的说只有在 这条有加油站的路上
的旅者能够继续前行,
而其他路上的旅者将很快用完汽油。
Eve n though each one selected his
route
at
random,
we
might
have
called
those
travelers
who
were
so
fortunate
as
to
have picked the right road wise, efficient, foresighted, etc.
即使每一个人都是随机选择其
线路,我们也可以称那些因运气好而选到正确道路的旅者为聪明的、有效率 的、有预见性的。
of
course,
we
would
consider
them
the
lucky
ones.
If
gasoline
supplies
were
now
moved to a new road, some formerly luckless traveler again would be able to move;
and
a
new
pattern
of
travel
would
be
observed
although
none
of
the
travelers
had
changed his particular path.
当然,
我们在这里其 实仅仅能将他们当作幸运者。
如果加油站此
时转移到了一条新路上,
一些一开始不够幸 运的旅者将能够再次前行,
此时,
即使没有任何旅者
改变他们特定的路线,我们也可以 观察到一个新的旅行模式。
The really possible paths have
changed with the changing environment.
真正可能的路线随着环境的改变也已随之改变。
All that is needed is a set of

varied, risk-taking (adoptable) travelers.
所有这些只需要一
组变量,承担风险的众多旅者。
The correct direction of travel will be established.
而旅行
的正确方向已经被确立了。
As circumstances (economic environment) change, the analyst
(economist)
can
select
the
types
of
participants
(firms)
that
will
now
become
successful; he may also be able to diagnose the conditions most conducive to a greater
probability of survival.

当环境(经济环境)改变,分 析者(经济学家)可以挑选出哪种类型
的参与者(公司)将会成功,他也可能会推断出对于较大生存几率 的来说哪些最有利的条件。


.CHANCE DOES NOT IMPLY NONDIRECTED, RANDOM ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES
IV.
偶然性并不意味着非指导性的、随机性的资源配置

These two examples do not constitute an attempt to base all analysis on adoptive
models dominated by chance.
我们用生物演化和芝加哥旅者两个例子,
并非是试图构造一个
可以进 行所有分析的由不确定性主导的
(环境)
采纳模型。
But they do indicate that collective
and individual random behavior does not per se imply a nihilistic theory incapable of
yielding reliable predictions and explanations; nor does it imply a world lacking in
order and apparent direction.
但是他们确实指出了集体和 个体的随机行为本身意味一个“不
会产出可信预测和解释”
的虚无主义理论,
同时这又 并不意味着世界就会由此缺乏秩序和明显导
向。
It might, however, be argued that the facts of life deny even a substantial role to
the element of chance and the associated adoption principle in the economic system.
但可争论的是,
现实生活中甚至否认偶然性要素具有一个实质性作用,
并且拒绝和经济系统的选
择采纳原则相联系起来。
For example, the long lives and disparate sizes of business firms
and hereditary fortunes may seem to be reliable evidence of consistent foresighted
motivation and nonrandom behavior.

例如, 长寿且有差异的商业公司和世袭的财富可能看
起来是可靠的“始终一致的有预见性动机和非随机性行为” 的证据。

In order to demonstrate
that consistent success cannot be treated as prima facie evidence against pure luck, the
following chance model of Borel, the famous French mathematician, is presented.

了初步证明 这些
“连续的成功”
并不能被当作否定纯粹偶然性因素的证据,
我们将展示一个著名< br>法国数学家
Borel
的偶然性模型。

Suppose two million Parisians were paired off and set to tossing coins in game of
matching, each pair plays until the winner on the first toss is again brought to equality
with the other player.

设想两百万巴黎人配对进行抛硬币比赛,
只要当同一组的两位选手投出
相同的一面,即 可获得胜利。

Assuming one toss per second for each eight-hour day, at
the end of ten years there would still be, on the average, about a hundred-odd pairs;
and if the players assign the game to their heirs, a dozen or so will still be playing at
the end of a thousand years.
假设投硬币频率是每秒一次,
一天八小时,
那么平均来说,
这场
比赛在十年 后仍然有大约一百余个小组在继续比赛;如果选手能够将比赛指派给他们的后人继



































The
implications
are
obvious.
Suppose
that
some
business
had
been
operating
for
one
hundred
years.
Should
one
rule
out
luck
and
chance
as
the
essence
of
the
factors
producing the long-term survival of the enterprise?
这里的含义已经非常明显了,设想某个生意已经运营了
100
年,我们是否可以认为这其中没有运气和偶然性因素作为一个根本 性要
素,
使得公司在长期中生存了下来?
No inference whatever can be drawn until the number
of
original
participants
is
known;
and
even
then
one
must
know
the
size,
risk,
and
frequency of each commitment.
这里,
除非能够知 道起初参与者的数量,
否则我们无法描述
出任何的推论结果;
而如果想得到一些推论,
人们还需要知道大小、
风险和每个承诺的频率等事
宜。
One can see from the Borel illustration the danger concluding that there are too
many firms with ling lives in the real world to admit an important role to chance.
人们
可以从
Borel
例证中最终想到, 现实中很多长寿的公司确实承认偶然性扮演了很重的角色。
On
the contrary, one might insist that there are actually too few!
而与此相反的一面是,人们
可能会强调这种偶然事实上非常少!

The chance postulate was directed to two problems. On the one hand, there is the
actual
way
in
which
a
substantial
fraction
of
economic
behavior
and
activity
is
affected. On the other, there is the method of analysis which economists may use in
their predictions and diagnoses.

偶然性假说导致了两个问题。一方面,

会通過一个 切實的
方式使得很大一部分经济行为和经济活动受到影响。
另一方面,
经济学家可能会 在进行预测和推
断时使用这个方法。

Before modifying the extreme chance model by adding adaptive
behavior, some connotations and implications of the incorporation of chance elements
will be elaborated in order to reveal the richness which is really inherent individual
acted
in
a
haphazard
and
nonmotivated
manner,
it
is
possible
that
the
variety
of
actions would be so great that the resulting collective set would contain actions that
are best, in the sense of perfect foresight.
在增加适应 性行为以修正极端偶然性模型之前,
将详细的说明一些纳入偶然性因素的隐含和暗示,
以便能够 揭示那些真正与生俱来的个体行动的
丰富含义——这些行动往往是偶然并且非动机性的。
这些各 种各样的行动很可能非常之多,
以至
于在完美预见的意义上,产生的集合所包含的正是那些最好 的行动。
For example, at a horse
race with enough bettors wagering strictly at random, someone will win on all eight
races. Thus individual random behavior does not eliminate the likelihood of observing
―appropriate‖
decisions.

例如,即使让有足够多赌马者在赛马比赛中严格的进行随机下 注,
一些人仍然可能会赢得所有的八场比赛。
如此看来,
每一个随机行为也并没有完全 剔除掉那些观
测“适当”决策的可能性。

Second,
and
conversely,
individual
behavior
according
to
some
foresight
and
collective
pattern
of
behavior
that
is
different
from
the
collective
variety
of
actions
associated with a random selection of actions.
其二,相反的是,根据一些预见和集体行为
模式的个体行为是与一个 随机的行动选择相联系的——这里的集体行为模式并不是集体各种各
样的行动。
Where
there
is
uncertainty,
people’s
judgments
and
opinions,
even
when
based on the best available evidence, will differ; no one of them may be making his
choice
by
tossing
coins;
yet
the
aggregate
set
of
actions
of
the
entire
group
of
participants may be indistinguishable from a set of individual actions, each selected at
ra ndom.
在不确定性环境下,人们的判断和意见即使在具有最好的现有证据时,也将是不同的;
他们中没有人会通过投硬币来作出选择;
因为每个选择都是基于随机的,
整个组的参与者的总 行
动集合可能会难以从个体行动的集合中进行区分。

Third, and fortunately, a chance-dominated model does not predict or explain or
diagnose.
其三,
幸运的 是,
一个偶然性占优模型不是无法进行预测、
解释或者推断的。
With a
knowledge of the economy’s realized requisites for survival and by a comparison of
alternative conditions, he can state what types of firms or behavior relative to other
possible types will be more viable, even though the firms themselves may not know
the conditions or even try to achieve them by readjusting to the conditions.
随着对经济
上实现生存的 必要条件的认知和可替代条件的对比,
人们可以阐述哪些类型的公司更可行,
抑或
其他 潜在类型公司的哪些相关行为将会更可行,其实此时那些公司自身也可能不知道这些条件,
抑或这些公司 也根本没有
(有意识的)
尽力重新调整条件来成就自己。
It is sufficient if all firms
are slightly different so that in the new environmental situation those who have their
fixed internal conditions closer to the new, but unknown, optimum position now have
a greater probability of survival and growth.
可以充分的说,
即使所有的公司只有些许轻微
的不同,那么在新环境 條件下,那些已具有稳定内在条件更贴近新的最佳位置(但不可知)
的公
司,如今有了更高的概 率存活下来并进行发展。
They will grow relative to other firms and
become
the
prevailing
type,
since
survival
conditions
may
push
the
observed
characteristics of the set of survivors toward the unknowable optimum by either (1)
repeated
trials
or
(2)
survival
of
more
of
those
who
happened
to
be
near
the

grd什么意思-fork怎么读


grd什么意思-fork怎么读


grd什么意思-fork怎么读


grd什么意思-fork怎么读


grd什么意思-fork怎么读


grd什么意思-fork怎么读


grd什么意思-fork怎么读


grd什么意思-fork怎么读



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