2021年1月23日发(作者：仇钺)

Unit 7
The Art of Smart Guessing
Consolidation Activities
I.

Text Comprehension
1.

Decide which of the following best states the author's purpose.
A. To introduce an effective method of interviewing candidates.
B.

To decide on a new quiz to find out how resourceful a thinker might be.
C.

To provide an access to gaining necessary information.
D. To recommend a creative model of thinking in decision-making.
Key: [ D ]
2.

Judge, according to the text, whether the following statements are true or false.
1)

. The author asked the readers to pay close attention to the method to be used in
solving the quiz question. [ T ]
2)

. The best way to know the number of
to the local library to do statistical research. [ F ]
3)

. To illustrate the smart guessing approach, the author has cited all together seven
examples. [ F ]
4)

. The law of averages is partly responsible for the accuracy of our guesswork
because our assumptions at the two extremes usually balance out. [ T ]
3.

Answer the following questions.
the one hand, intended to find out how
other hand, he was tired of the clich ?!in
solution is to risk an approximation since
1)

. Refer to Paragraph 1. The author, on

intelligent the interviewee might be; on the

questioning candidates during interviews.
2)

. Refer to Paragraphs 4 and 5. The best

there isn't enough information for you to come up with an exactly correct answer.
3)

. Refer to Paragraph 6. It means a great deal for business or creativity as we frequently
need to make decisions when full information does not exist.
4)

. Refer to Paragraph 9. They call them Fermi problems, named after Enrico Fermi, a
Nobel Prize winner. He used such problems to teach his students how to make an approximation
when relevant information is inadequate.
5)

. Refer to Paragraphs 16 and 17. It looked like a mushroom cloud. He had followed a smart
way, watching unpopped popcorn kernels in the microwave oven, to approximate the hot spots for
cooking instead of using scientifically sophisticated testing equipment.
6)

. In decision-making, when the necessary relevant information is not available, guessing
becomes inevitable. Smart guessing, i.e. guessing based on approximations is recommended in such


circumstances, and it may often, if not always, prove to be effective and fruitful.
4.

Explain in your own words the following sentences taken from the text.
1)

. Did you get so tied up in these complex math figures that you were unable to give the

2)

. Did you focus all your attention on the two most important problems, and then make an
estimation which may not be exactly right?
3)

. Your mistakes will often average out, i.e. the extremely high estimations and the extremely
low estimations which you make will eventually become equal in amount, value, or effect.
4)

. The black cloth absorbed the heat of the sun most. So, it sank so deep below that the
sunrays could not reach it.
II.

Writing Strategies
This text is a typical piece of exposition developed by exemplification. The title, The
Art of Smart Guessing, points out the theme of the text. The introduction, which presents the
background of the text, is very appealing to the readers. In the body of the text, a
Fermi problem is defined and illustrated with specific examples. The examples are provided to
show what a Fermi problem is, to tell us how it can be solved, and to suggest the significance
of the art of smart guessing. It is worth noting that the conclusion echoes the beginning,
contributing to the formation of the organic unity of the essay. The writer has incorporated
descriptions, anecdotes, opinions, and facts into a highly individual expository essay.
The two questions below are worthy of our attention: (1) In what way is the introduction
connected with the conclusion?
In the beginning a one- question quiz is described, in which an interesting question is
asked, and in the conclusion its answer is offered, with the smart guessing process
presented. Thus, the beginning and the conclusion are naturally connected with each
other.
(2) In the body of the essay the author gives some typical examples to illustrate a Fermi
problem. How many examples are presented? What do you think of the examples?



Altogether, four examples are provided to explain a Fermi problem. They are very
typ ical exa mples that best illustrate what a Fermi p roblem is.
III.

Lan guage Work
1. Explain the un derl ined part in each sentence in your own words.
1)

. Did you make a compi etely wild guess
a simply groun dless p redicti on far from being correct
2)

. Did you get too bogged down in the details trying to come up with the
swer?
stu mped or baffled; work out
3)

. Or did you zero in on the two most important problems?
come to concen trate on and deal with
4)


ageable questi ons.
dividi ng it i nto
. To answer the question, he recommended
breaking it down into smaller, more man
5)

. Because of the law of averages, your mistakes will freque ntly bala nee out.
be of little imp orta nee in terms of nu mber
2.

Fill in each blank with one of the two words from each pair
approp riate forms and note the differe nee of mea ning betwee n them.
in their
hazard

ven ture
1)

. I would hazard a guess that they will do well in the next elect ion.
2)

. After a casual chat about the local fami ne, the woma n ven tured to answer our cautious
questio ns.
3). Patrolli ng the US border with Mexico is as far as he has ven tured into geo politics.
4)

. He could not believe that, had the En glishma n known how much he was at risk, he
would have hazarded his grandson.
conven tio nal

traditi onal
1)

. When most subscribed to the conventional wisdom that soccer is a minor sport in
America, the victory had a real impact on the whole popu lati on.
2)

. The secretary of defe nse argued that
conventional wea pons will soon be the least of

our worries as weapons of mass destruction
have found their way into the hands of


in dividuals.
3)

. These two p arties, which are traditional rivals, describe the elect ion as a war betwee n

4)

. The local people are still very traditional in many ways, refusing to send their daughters
to school.
con tain
1)

. Transport is not in eluded but can be arra nged.
in clude
2)

. The envelope contained a t yp ed, un sig ned letter dema nding one millio n in cash.
3)

. The dead in eluded six people atte nding a religious cere mony.
4)

. Seem in gly incon seque ntial details can sometimes con tain significa nt clues.
guess

suppose
1)

. Suppose some one gave you an egg and asked you to describe what exactly was in side.
2)

. Ask the children to guess what is in each container by dipping their hands in.
3)

. The author's inten ti on is to kee p every one guessing un til the bitter end.
4). Every one was supposed to dance with the bride and pin money on her dress.
3.

Fill in the bla nk in each sentence with a word or p hrase take n from the box, using its approp
riate form.
resourceful

hazard
inten sity
outlet
mercha ndise
n autical
estimate
app roximate
trench
quiz
kernel
visual
1)

. This figure is five times the origi nal estimate.
2)

. They have no way to dis pose of the hazardous waste they p roduce.
3)

. Brita in is intensifying its efforts to secure the release of three British hostages.
4)

. Tran slati on must always be a p rocess of app roximatio n and comp romise.
5)

. There's a sizzling summer of soccer ahead
—

we're kicking it off with a series of crack ing
quizzes.
6)

. Turning that vision into a reality is not easy.
7)

. I don't envisage I will take an executive role, but rather become a consultant on merchandise
and marketing.
8). Surely it is econo mic nonsense to depl ete the world of n atural resources.
4. Make a sentence of your own for each of the give n words with mea nings other tha n those used in
the text. You may cha nge the part of sp eech of these words.
1)

. wild
As the Super Girls came on stage they went wild.
2)

. elega nt
The article imp ressed me with its elega nt simp licity.
3)

. raise
All funds raised will be used for childre n with leukaemia.


4)

. figure
Janet was a n atural blonde with a good figure.
5)

. stroke
It did n't rain, which turned out to be a stroke of luck.
6)

. kernel
The kernel of that message is that p eace is a source of adva ntage for the poor.
5. Combine each pair of simpie sentences into a complex sentence, using proper subord inators.
1)

. My wife was mowi ng the law n. I was tryi ng to liste n to music.
While my wife was mowi ng the law n, I was tryi ng to liste n to music.
2)

. The weather remai ns fin e. I see no reas on why the village fete should not be a success.
If / Provided that the weather rema ins fin e, I see no reas on why the village fete should not be
a success.
3)

. He lost his cell-phone somewhere. The lecture hall might be the p lace.
The lecture hall might be the p lace where he lost his cell-phone.
4)

. The travelers were trapped in the cave. One of them has already bee n brought out.
One of the travelers who was trapped in the cave has already bee n brought out.
5)

. He was lying. That is quite obvious.
It is quite obvious that he was lying.
6)

. An Australia n friend is coming to see me. I made his acqua intance in Sydney last year.
An Australia n frie nd whose acqua intance I made in Sydney last year is coming to see me.
7)

. Sick ness kept him away from school. He did n't get the p rize.
He did n't get the p rize because sick ness kept him away from school.
8)

. You p romise to come back in time. You shall not go to the party toni ght.
You shall not go to the party toni ght uni ess you p romise to come back in time.
9). Lucy sp oke En glish fast. I could n't un dersta nd her.
I could n't un dersta nd Lucy because she sp oke En glish too fast.
10). His wife waited up. He came home.
His wife waited up un til he came home.
5.

Put a word in each bla nk that is approp riate for the con text.