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Behavioral Finance
RA6 The Behavioral Finance Perspective
(选择题可能性更大)
1
.传统金融学与行为金融学对比
(
1
)
Traditional Finance:nomative
i.
假设人是
Rational Economic Man(REM)
: 遵循效益理论,对概率精确估计,用
贝叶斯公式处理新增信息,
focus on maximizing their personal utility function
ii. risk-averse,
iii. have perfect information,
iv. process all available information in an unbiased way
(
2
)
Behavioral Finance
假设
i. risk- averse or risk-neutral or risk-seeking or the combination of the icing
ii. lack of information
,
lack of perfect knowledge
iii. personal inner conflicts that prioritize short-term
goals over long-term goals
can
lead to poor prioritization
Traditional
Behavioral
risk-averse
loss-averse
perfect information
limited knowledge
utility maxmization
satisficing
rational
bounded rationality
3. Prospect Theory
前景理论
(2002
诺奖
)
同样价值的
Gains
带来效用比
losses
少。
4. Bounded Rationality:
人的知识是有限的,
knowledge capacity limits
Satisfice = satisfy + suffice
,勉强满足
5.
有效市场假说
市场异常(
anomalies
)
:
i. fundamental anomalies
size effect
:小盘股
outperform
大盘股
value effect
:低
PE PB
公司
outperform
高
ii. technical anomalies
:均值回归,支持阻力点,
against weak-form EMH
iii. calendar anomalies
:一月效应,
1
月第一周能获得超额收益
6. The behavioral Finance Perspective
(
1
)
Consumption and savings
:
Framing
(对不同描述)
, self- control
(现在消费
比将来效用大)
, mental accounting
(对不同来源的资产定位不同)
(
2
)
Behavioral
asset
pricing:
required
return
=
risk-free
rate
+
fundamental
risk
premium + sentiment premium
(情感溢价)
(
3
)
Behavioral portfolio theory(BPT )
:基于经验和观察判断,而非分散化。根据
根据以下目的选择投资品:目的重要性、要求回报 率、效用、信息、损失厌恶。
(
4
)
Adaptive markets hypothesis(AMH)
:根据市场情况不断调试。
RA7 The Behavioral Biases of Individuals
(★★★★写作题重点)
注意:
1.
基本思想:
Errors
认知错误要改正
(Modify)
,
biases
偏差应该接受(
better
to
moderate or adapt
)
。
2.
常见考试形式:给出一个场景、一段 投资者论述,提供四个选项,问是哪一
种
bias
及原因。
3.
要结合材料的上下文,纯从文字字面意思推测。
一、
cognitive error
(一)
belief perseverance errors
(固执己见)
1.
conservatism bias
:
put more emphasis on the information they used to form their
original forecast than on new information
,
更重视原有信息,
没有充分反映新信息。
2.
confirmation
bias
:
individuals
tend
to
notice
only
information
that
agrees
with
their perceptions or beliefs.
寻找并确认符合观点的信息,忽视与其观点冲突的信
息。
3.
representativeness bias(
常考★★★
)
:
New information is evaluated based on past
classification or experience without more thorough analysis.
不经全 面分析,根据过
去经验评估新信息。三种情况(
1
)过去的分类沿用,不根据新信息调 整;
(
2
)
base-rate neglect
新信息被过分重视 ,即使并不准确;
(
3
)
sample-size neglect
,新
信息被过分重视,即使仅仅是异常情况。
4.
illusion
of
control
bias
:
market
participants
think
they
can
control
or
affect
outcomes when they cannot.
错误的认为自己能够影响投资品的结果,
实际上不能。
5.
hindsight bias
:
selective memory of past events, actions, or what was knowable in
the past.
事后诸葛亮,时候觉得自己本来可以选择正确的投资品。
(二)
Information-processing errors
(信息处理错误)
:
illogically or irrationally
1.
anchoring
and
adjustment
bias(
常考★★★
)
:锚定偏差,幼鹅效应。
Market
participants
use
psychological
heuristic
experience
based
trial
and
error
rules
to
unduly affect probabilities.
人会被一些“锚”
(某种暗示、习惯)限定,并调整对
未来投资的观点。
2.
mental accounting(
常考★★★
)
:
Money is treated differently depending on how
it is categorized.
对于一样的钱,来源、分类不同,会有不同的认知。例如,一笔
钱 放在同一投资组合,还是放在不同账户,根据不同分类、需求给予不同对待。
3.
framing
bias(
常考★★★
)
:
Decisions
are
affected
by
the
way
in
which
the
question or date is
“
framed.
”
人会根据同一数据
/
信息的不同展示方式,
做出 不同的
投资选择。
4.
availability
bias
:
putting
undue
emphasis
on
the
information
that
is
readily
available.
最近的事件
/
信息对人的影响更大。
eg. Advisor
推荐自己熟悉的股票。
二
、
emotional bias
:
impulse or intuition
1.
loss- averse bias
:
feel more pain from a loss than pleasure from an equal gain
相同损失与获利相比,跟感觉损失更大。
2.
overconfidence bias
:
market participants overestimate their own intuitive ability or
reasoning.
好的归因于自己,坏的归因于外部环境。
Prediction
overconfidence
认
为自己能够预测正确
, certainty overconfidence
对自己的概率估计过分自信。
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