中英文文献翻译-轻型汽车变速器市场分析与预测

2021年1月26日发(作者：崩溃的意思)

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Market Analysis and Forecast of Light Vehicle Transmission


1 Global transmission market status


The
current
global
vehicle
production
increases
at
an
average
annual
rate
of
3.5%
per
year
and
is
expected
to
at
least
89
million
at
2015.
With
the
increase
in
light
vehicle
production, manual transmission and planetary gear automatic transmission is also expected
to yield increases, but they will be occupied a part of the CVT market share by the AMT.
Compared with planetary gear transmission, AMT and the CVT automatic transmission can
not
only
improve
the
transmission
efficiency
and
decrease
production
costs,
but
also
can
quickly improve the shift quality; so it is expected that AMT will be higher growth rates.
CVT
applications
will
be
limited
to
small
vehicles,
but
if
the
ring
IVT
technology
in
practical
applications
become
more
mature,
reliable
and
gain
market
acceptance,
it
can
achieve strong growth momentum.


2 Transmission Market Analysis and Forecast


2.1 manual transmission (MT)
Over the
years, Western Europe focus on studying driving control,
manufacturing
costs
and fuel economy and other issues, becoming the largest market for manual transmissions,
but it is expected that in the next 5 years, the market position of the manual transmission
will
eventually
be
replaced
by
Eastern
Europe
and
Asia.
However,
in
whole
Europe,
the
proportion of manual transmission has been on the decline, especially when the AMT gains
more
market
share
and
the
automatic
transmission
is
applied
the
small
car
market
and
manual
transmission
in
the
European
new
car
market
share
is
expected
to
decrease
from
2005 In about 80% to 70% in 2010, about 55% by 2015. At Asia-Pacific region (excluding
Japan), manual transmission market share is expected to decrease from 87% in 2005 down
to 85% in 2010 and drop to 83% in 2015. However, automatic transmission and CVT are
very popular in Japan, and manual transmission will lose market share gradually, expecting
to decline from the current 22% to 13% in 2010. In North America, the manual transmission
market share is expected to continue to decline, from 13% in 2005 down to 11% in 2010,
and
by
2015
only
10%
of
the
market.
In
China,
India,
Pacific
Rim
and
South
America,
5-speed manual transmission is expected to
continue to occupy most of the
market share.


Overall, as a slight increase in global automotive production, the global market share of the
manual transmission is expected to decline.


2.2 Automatic Transmission (AT)
Over the years, the North American car owners are more like driving a car with automatic
transmission,
and
this
preference
will
still
continue,
despite
the
recent
tend
that
buying
a
vehicle
with
better
fuel
economy
may
affect
the
automatic
transmission
market,
resulting
market
share
falling.
Planetary
gear
automatic
transmission
will
account
for
85%
of
the
market share in 2010, 87% in 2005 but2015 will drop to 83%. In 2010, 5-speed automatic
transmission will account for 77% of total transmission, while the market share of 6-speed
transmission
will
increase,
especially
the
large
torque
6-speed
transmission.
6-speed
automatic
transmission
is
expected
to
account
for
15%
～
20%of
the
total
output
of
automatic transmission, 50% by 2010. In 2015. 4-speed automatic transmission is expected
to disappear from new product by 2010.


Due
to
CVT
quickly
capture
the
market,
especially
in
Japan
account
for
a
large
proportion
of
small
and
micro-car
segment,
automatic
transmission
has
been
Japan's
dominant
position
in
the
market
for
many
years.
Automatic
transmission
market
share
is
expected to decrease from 60% in 2005 to 50% in 2010, down to 45% in 2015. New car
market has grown rapidly in the Asia- Pacific (excluding Japan), automatic transmission is
expected
to
increase
from
15%
in
2005
to
18%
in
2010,
22%
in
2015.
In
Europe,
the
automatic transmission market will be eroded by DCT, from 17% in 2005 down to 16% in
2015
to
14%
by
2015.
In
the
March
2007
survey
found
that
15%
of
the
next
European
automatic transmission owners planed to buy a car assembled DCT select models, and more
than 40% report showed that they would consider models with AMT. According to analysis,
the
global
vehicle
production
assembled
automatic
transmission
will
soon
exceed
manual
transmission car, but a part of the total amount of the automatic transmission increase in the
proportion
due
to
AMT.
With the
growth
of
AMT
and
the
CVT,
the
traditional
planetary
automatic
transmission
is
expected
to
be
only
slightly
higher
than
the
29
million
units
in
2005, while in 2010 it will surpass 3000 million and in 2015 achieve 33 million units.


2.3 Continuously variable transmission (CVT)
CVT
in
Japan
has
been
in
a
dominant
market
position,
its
market
share
is
expected
to
continue to grow from about 20% in 2005 to 38% in 2010. In other markets, CVT will only
get
a
certain
degree
of
market
acceptance.
CVT
may
be
expected
to
achieve
5%
market


share
in
Europe
by
2010,
but
the
possibility
of
achieving
that
is
even
smaller
than
the
market
in
North
America.
While
CVT
can
transmit
high
torque,
but
manufacturing
CVT
need
special
alloy
steel
and
require
special
high-precision
machining,
making
the
manufacturing
cost
relatively
expensive,
much
higher
than
the
manual
transmission
with
considerable
power.
CVT
size
is
also
an
assembly
problem,
in
Europe
because
its
lower
torque transmission capability has limited consumer acceptance. In North America, full of
large displacement vehicles, the CVT significantly reduced market penetration, and only to
such
as
the
Honda
Civic
Hybrid
and
other
automotive
facilities.
Although
acceptance
is
limited
in
the
two
larger
markets,
the
global
production
of
CVT
is
expected
to
increase
about 60%, from 250 million units in 2005 to 400 million units in 2010 and in 2015 almost
600 million units. It will be driven by fast-growing small car market in developing countries,
markets
in
developed
countries
shifting
to
better
fuel
economy
small
cars
and
hybrid
technology.


2.4 The automatic mechanical transmission (AMT)
AMT market
share is
expected to
be significant
growth in
the coming
years, especially
with the improvement of the quality shift in the traditional automatic transmission, leading
to the luxury car market more attractive. One advantage of AMT is the hydraulic to electric
drive
to
get
better
transmission
efficiency
and
transmission
efficiency
of
AMT
in
a
way
beyond the manual gearbox, because the driver is unlikely to be more than a computer to
optimize shift to Improve fuel economy.


Because
European
prefers
the
manual
transmission
traditionally,
and
focus
on
driver
control and the study of fuel economy, the growth rate of AMT in Europe will be the highest,
where the market share is expected to increase from only 1% in 2005 to 15% in 2010 and to
29% by 2015. Survey found that 15% of the purchaser and carrying automatic transmission
European car owners plan to buy a car with DCT next time, more than 40% of car owners
would consider buying a car with AMT. The market share of DCT will reach 29% by 2015
in Europe, but analysts predict the share is only 10%. In the Asia-Pacific region excluding
Japan, market share of AMT is expected to reach 7% in 2010, rising to 13% by 2015. It is
predicted
that
market
share
of
AMT
in
Japan
is
very
low,
no
more
than
2%
in
2010.
Automatic transmissions in North America are expected to continue to maintain the leading
position,
the
market
share
of
AMT
rise
from
0
in
2005
to
4%
in
2010
and
7%
by
2015.
Global production of AMT is expected to surpass 5.5 million units in 2010 and reach about