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当今世界的十大定律
长尾理论
和
帕累托定律
让我联想到前
段时间我在《福布斯》杂志上看到的一篇文章，讲述的是当今世界的
十大定律。凑巧的是
，我在新华网上看到了这篇文章的中译文。译文翻译的不是特别好，但要让我自己来
翻，
估计也就这个水平了。贴在这里，以备今后查考。
Digital Rules
Ten Laws of the Modern World
Rich Karlgaard, 05.09.05, 12:00 AM ET
?
Moore's
Law.
Listen to a billionaire explain
why an understanding of Moore's Law is a key to
unlocking
business
riches.
Don
Valentine
founded
Sequoia
Capital
in
1972
and
presided
over
early
investments in Apple,
Electronic Arts, Cisco, Yahoo and Google. He once
told me the secret to
his
success:
easy.
I
just
follow
Moore's
Law
and
make
a
few
guesses
about
its
consequences.
This
April
marked
the
40th
anniversary
of
Gordon
Moore's
famous
dictum.
In
1965
Moore
(he
cofounded
Intel
three
years
later)
noted
that
components
on
silicon
chips
were
doubling
every
year.
In
1975
he
amended
that
to
every
two
years.
Today
Moore's
Law
has
transcended
silicon
chips.
It
has
become
a way of saying that
all digital stuff, from PCs to cell phones to
music players, get twice as
good every
18 to 24 months--at the same price point.
Projecting from Moore's Law, venture
capitalist
Valentine
saw
a
future
of
personal
computers,
games,
routers
and
search
engines.
Now,
go project!
1
、摩尔定律：让我们一同来倾听一位亿万富翁对于摩尔定律的感悟。风险投资公司<
/p>
Sequoia
Capital
的缔<
/p>
造者唐·瓦伦丁将摩尔定律视为商务运作的关键所在。他的公司曾向苹果、
EA
、思科、雅虎以及
Google
< br>等
多家高科技公司进行投资。在谈到自己的成功秘诀的时候，他坦率地表示：“十
分简单，我只是遵从摩尔
定律，并且对随之而来的结果进行一些猜测而已。” 今年的<
/p>
4
月份正好是摩尔定律的
40
周年纪念。
1965
年，戈登·摩尔（
3
年之后他亲自参与了英特尔公司的建立）首次提出：硅芯片上的晶体管数
量将会以每
年一倍的速度翻番。
到了
1
975
年，
摩尔先生将一年的周期改为了两年，而摩尔定律从那
以后一直延续到今
天，成为芯片业发展的圣经。然而随着时间推移，摩尔定律适用的范围
已经超越了单纯的芯片，从个人电
脑到手机产品，再到音乐播放器，几乎任何与高科技沾
边的产品都适用于摩尔定律，在保持售价不变的前
提下，产品性能翻番的周期也逐渐演变
成为了
18
到
24
个月。正是通过对于摩尔定律的信任，唐·瓦伦丁
在个人电脑、游戏、以及搜索引擎
等不同领域都取得了成功。
?
The Back Side of Moore's
Law.
This one says that digital stuff
gets 30% to 40% cheaper every
year--at
the same performance point. The back side of
Moore's Law is why your $$299 Treo 650 is
as
powerful
as
a
$$3,500
Compaq
PC
was
in
1988.
It's
why
hundreds
of
millions
of
Chinese
and
Indians
now own their
personal portals to the global economy.
2
、摩尔定律边际定律：此条定律表示，在保持同等性能的前提下，数字产品的售价
以每年
30
％到
40
< br>％的
幅度下滑。这条定律也可以解释为何用户手中价值
2
99
美元的
Treo 650
牌电脑在
性能方面可以媲美
1988
年售价达到
3500
美元的康柏电脑产品。
?
Andy and Bill's
Law.
The origin of this was a funny
one-liner told at computer conferences in
the
1990s.
It
went
like
this:
Andy
giveth,
Bill
taketh
away.
It
meant
that
every
time
Andy
Grove (then CEO of
Intel) brought a new chip to market, Bill Gates
(then CEO of Microsoft) would
1
upgrade his
software and
soak up the new
chip's
power. But
beyond
the
laugh,
there's deep
truth.
Moore's Law constantly enables new
software. Often the new software is just an
incremental
improvement. But every few
years the world gets a wild breakthrough--graphic
computing in the
1980s, Web browsers in
the 1990s, fast search engines today. Next? Surely
something amazing.
3
、
安迪比尔定律：
在上个世纪
90
年代的一次电脑大会上，
有人表示：
“安迪提供什么，
比尔拿走什么。
”
换句话说，英特尔公司总
裁安迪·格罗夫一旦向市场推广了一种新型芯片产品，微软
CEO
比尔盖茨就会及
时地升级自己的软件产品，吸收新型芯片的高性能。摩尔定律的效能保
证了新型软件不断出现在市场上，
然而通常新软件只不过是表面的提升而已，不过随着硬
件技术的提升，软件技术也会在某一时刻达到飞跃
的效果，例如上世纪
< br>80
年代的图形计算和上世纪
90
年代的网络浏览，今天的搜索引擎，下一个该是什么
呢？毫无疑问它会让我们大吃一惊
。
?
Metcalfe's
Law.
This
one's
named
after
Robert
Metcalfe,
the
inventor
of
the
computer
networking
protocol
Ethernet.
Metcalfe
said
the
usefulness
of
a
network
improves
by
the
square
of
the
number
of
nodes
on
the
network.
Translation:
The
Internet,
like
telephones,
grows
more
valuable
as
more
join in. This is how
Ebay grew so profitable so fast.
4
、梅特卡夫定律：这条定律是用以太网络的发明人罗伯特·梅特卡夫的
名字命名的。定律表示，网络的
有用性
(
价值
)
随着用户数量的平方数增加而增加。换句话说，某种网
络，比如电话的价值随着使用用户数
量的增加而增加。现在如日中天的电子商务网站
eBay
就是最好的例证。
?
Gilder's Law:
Winner's Waste.
The futurist George
Gilder wrote about this a few years ago in
a Forbes publication. The best business
models, he said, waste the era's cheapest
resources in
order
to
conserve
the
era's
most
expensive
resources.
When
steam
became
cheaper
than
horses,
the
smartest
businesses
used
steam
and
spared
horses.
Today
the
cheapest
resources
are
computer
power
and bandwidth. Both
are getting cheaper by the year (at the pace of
Moore's Law). Google is a
successful
business because it wastes computer power--it has
some 120,000 servers powering its
search engine--while it conserves its
dearest resource, people. Google has fewer than
3,500
employees, yet it generates $$5
billion in (current run rate) sales.
5
、吉尔德定律：胜利者浪费定律。数字时代
< br>3
大思想家之一的乔治·吉尔德在《福布斯》创刊之前的几
年就曾经提出了著名的吉尔德定律。他说，最为成功的商业运作模式是价格最低的资源将会被尽可能地耗
费，以此来保存最昂贵的资源。在蒸气机出现的时代，因为蒸气机的成本已经低于当时传统的运
输工具马
匹，因此聪明的商人开始了蒸气机的使用。如今最为廉价的资源就是电脑以及网
络带宽资源，并且随着摩
尔定律的生效，两者的价格还呈现出飞速的下滑趋势。
Google
公司就是一个很好的例子，公司服务器产品
达到了大约
12
万台，支撑起了搜索引擎的整个网络架
构，然而在成本相对较高的人力资源方面
Google
公
司却显得十分吝啬，如今公司的员工总数还不到
3500
人，但就是这样一个公司每年的销量却达到了
50
亿
美元。
?
Ricardo's Law.
The more
transparent an economy becomes, the more David
Ricardo's 19th-century
law
of
comparative
advantage
rules
the
day.
Then
came
the
commercial
Internet,
the
greatest
window
into comparative
advantage ever invented. Which means if your
firm's price-value proposition is
lousy, too bad. The world knows.
6
、李嘉图定律：经济形式越明朗，
19
世纪英国经济学家大卫·李嘉图提出的比较优势定律的作用就越明
显。商
务互联网的出现就是一个很好的例子，这也是自从比较优势定律被提出以来最大的一个“窗口”。
当然这也意味着，如果贵公司的表现实在糟糕的话，整个世界都会知道的。
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