话说中秋-玛德二号
2010 年上海世博会，机遇和挑战并存 The Expo in Shanghai,
Opportunities and Challenges 世
界博览会是全球最高级别的博览会，
是世界各国展示其社会、经济、文化、科技成就和发展
前景的盛会，被誉为“经济、科技、文化领域的奥
林匹克”。2010 年世博会将在上海举行，
这次世博会将成为强盛的中国向世界展示经济和技术实力
的历史性契机。这将对上海及周边
地区的经济、社会、环境和制度等方面产生广泛而深远的影响。一个国
家举办世博会 其目
的从来就不是仅仅为了世博会本身的盈利，世博会本身被赋予了更大的经济内涵。从
1993
年韩国大田世博会和2000 年德国汉诺威世博会的经验来看，世博会往往具有提振经济、
带
动股市繁荣的作用。世博会对于新技术开发、应用和推广起到重要的示范和引领作用，对促
进
举办城市和国家的经济发展具有深远意义。具体来说，世博会本身构成会展经济，并由此
带动一系列产业
链的发展。从前期的基础设施投资，到会展期间将引导巨大的物流、人流、
资金流进入上海，为经济增长
和服务业发展带来强大推动力量。 World Exposition is regards
as
the world's highest level of exposition, on which
the countries exhibit their social, economic,
cultural, scientific and technological
achievements. It is also known as Olympics in the
economic, technological and cultural 2010
will be held in Shanghai, this will
become a
historic opportunity for a powerful China by
showing the world economic and
technological
strengths. This will bring forth profound
influence on economic, social,
environmental
and institutional aspects in Shanghai and
surrounding areas. A host country never
aims
to the profitability of the Expo itself, but to
the great economic content the Expo has been
given. Experiences of the Expo 1993 in Daejeon
and Expo 2000 in Hanover showed that the
World
Exposition could boost the economy and stimulate
the stock market. World Exposition
plays an
important and leading role in development,
application and promotion of new
technology
.what’s more, it also has far-reaching
significance in promoting economic development
of the host city and its country.
Specifically, the Expo itself belongs to
exhibition economy and
thus promotes the
development of a series of industrial chain.
During the exposition, It will bring
powerful
driving force for economic growth and development
of service industry by investing in
infrastructure, drawing a huge amount of
materials, people and capital flow into Shanghai.
2010
年以“城市让生活更美好”为主题的上海世博会，是第一次以城市为主题的世博会，将给上<
br>海带来巨大商机和财富，世博会约需 30 亿美元投资，旅游业直接收入将达911 亿元人民
币，由此带动的上海交通、通信等城市基础设施、商业设施、旧区改造等延伸领域投资，将
是直接投资的
5 至10
倍。据保守估计。单是世博会门票、餐饮、旅游纪念品给上海带来的
直接收人，就将超过90
亿元人民币，经济效益将比2002 年的韩日世界杯高出1 5 倍。 Effect
of
incremental economy With City, Better Lifeas the
theme, the Shanghai Expo will
create enormous
opportunities as well as wealth for Shanghai. And
it is also the first Expo focused
on “city”.
The total investment will be about 3 billion U.S
dollars, and direct revenue of tourism
will
achieve 91.1 billion Yuan. That will drive an
indirect investment which amounts 5 to 10 times
to the direct investment. The indirect
investment may be occurred in the fields of urban
infrastructure such as transportation,
communication, commercial facilities, urban
transformation
and other extension of the
fields. At a conservative estimate, the direct
income of tickets, catering,
travel souvenirs
of Expo may reach more than nine billion Yuan
while the economic returns may
be 15 times
higher than the Korea-Japan World Cup in 2002.
自英国伦敦在 1851
年举办首届
世博会以来，国际大都市一直都热衷于举办各种博览会乃至世博会。美国纽约举办过6
次
世博会，法国巴黎举办过6 次，日本举办过4
次，德国汉诺威就是因会展而闻名的城市，
每年举办大约60 个博览会。无疑，上海举办2010 年
世博会，可以极大地提高国际化城市
地位，有助于增进国际问、地区间的交流合作，提高市民的科学文化
素质，丰富市民生活，
提升上海的城市知名度和整体形象。 Effect of
enhancement Since the first London Expo in
1851, the international metropolis has always
been keen to host all kinds of expositions and
even
the World Expo. The World Expos were held
six times in New York, six times in Paris, and
four
times in Japan. Hanover is renowned for
exhibitions, as it runs about 60 expositions each
year.
There is no doubt that the World Expo
2010 can greatly enhance the status of Shanghai,
help to
strengthen international and regional
cooperation, improve the citizen's scientific and
cultural
qualities, enrich people's lives and
enhance Shanghai's popularity and overall image.
2010 年上海
世博会可推动上海实现社会可持续发展的规划和建设，进一步改善城市生
态系统，加快基
础设施的建设，还可将经济发展重心转向文化、教育、媒体等精神产品，推 动上海早日
进
入以人为本的发展阶段，大大促进当地产业结构的调整，实现产业升级，促进第三产业和高
新
技术产业的发展。此外，2010 年上海世博会需要高水平的融资、商业、旅游、管理以及
法律等专业
服务，将带来上海整个城市及周边城市功能的全方位飞跃，从而使全世界都能深
刻地感受到上海更加强劲
的脉动。 the World Expo in Shanghai can promote the
planning and
construction of sustainable
development with further improving the urban
ecosystem and speeding
up construction of
infrastructure facilities. It also will push
Shanghai forward the developmental
stage of
taking people as the foremost by concentrating on
the spiritual products of culture and
education. The Shanghai Expo can contribute
significantly to the adjustment of local
industrial
structure which promoting the
developments of the tertiary industries and new
and high
technology industries. Furthermore,
because of the Shanghai Expo, the first-class
service of
finance, commerce, tourism,
management will be strongly needed. This could
make a leap of the
functions of the entire
city and surrounding cities. Thus all over the
world will feel the great
change of Shanghai.
以会展业发达的德国汉诺威为例，在汉诺威市第三产业中，世博会及相
关会展业就业人数占到2／3
以上。上海世博会每1000 平方米的展厅面积，可创造100 个
就业机会，无疑为上海提供了良好
的运行机制。中国加入世贸组织步伐的加快，将使上海的
国际贸易、海外投资更上一层楼，作为促进贸易
、启动市场的杠杆，2010 年上海世博会的
举办必定会获得更广阔的就业发展空间。 Take
Hannover, Germany for example, many people
there work for the tertiary industry. However,
more than 23 of these jobs have relations with the
Expo and exhibition industry. During the
Shanghai Expo, every 1000 square meters of halls
can
create 100 jobs, which will provide good
mechanisms for Shanghai. It will also stimulate
the
international trade and foreign investment
in Shanghai. After all, holding Shanghai Expo in
2010
will gain numerous room for the growth of
employment. 香港每年的会展人均消费额24826 港
元，为度假消费的3
倍；新加坡一般游客只逗留3．7 天，消费710 新元，会议客人则逗
留7．7
天，消费达1700 新元。在20lO年世博会场馆内外游客将需要大量的各种消费品和
食品，世博会
及相关产品的消费成为上海旅游业的拳头产品之一。 Per capita consumption of
exhibition industry in Hong Kong is 24826 HK
dollars every year, which is 3 times as much as
holiday spending. General tourists stay in
Singapore for about 3.7 days while conferencs
guests
for 7.7 days. The former spend 710
Singapore dollars and the latter spend 1700
Singapore dollars.
In 2010, the foreign guests
will need a variety of consumption goods in the
Expo venues.
Therefore, the consumption of
Expo and related products will become the core
products of
tourism in Shanghai. 上海约 30 亿美元投资将
直接投入世博会园区建设中，江浙沪因上海
“世博圈”效应将共同受益，并带动上长三角地区的十几个城
市如：杭州、苏州、无锡、常
州等电子业、制造业、房产业等行业的迅速发展。上海将采取“分散接待”
方式接待游客，
与上海为邻的苏、锡、常等城市，将借“大上海旅游”的宏观主题，凭借交通优势接受上
海
辐射，长三角地区物流、商贸等领域的合作也将加强，世博会提供了共赢的机会。 During
these years, Shanghai spent about 3
billion US dollars on the construction of Expo
parks. Hence,
the surrounding areas like
Jiangsu, Zhejiang will benefit from the “Expo
circle effect”. What’s
more, this will lead to
quick development of electronics, manufacturing,
and real estate industries
in the cities of
Yangtze River delta region. For example, cities
like Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuxi and
Changzhou.
Because of the transportation advantage, these
cities will also receive guests who
want to
visit shanghai. In conclusion, the cooperation
between cities of Yangtze River delta region
will be strengthened and the Expo provides
win-win opportunities. 从理论上来说，上海世博会
的举办不仅可以提升举办
城市上海的整体价值，而且可以通过其集聚和辐射效应，以点带面
拉动长三角城市圈和华东地区的经济发
展。但另一方面，纵观世博会的历史我们发现，作为
一项耗资巨大的工程，世博会也同时会给主办国和主
办城市带来一定的风险。这个风险主要
包括世博会本身的经营风险，例如可能会出现财务亏损；还包括世
博会的举办可能无法产生
主办方所预期的正外部效应，如对区域经济一体化的促进作用以及产业结构调整
作用。因此，
对于上海来说举办世博会的机会与风险并存。 Theoretically, the
Shanghai World Expo will not
only enhance the
overall value of the host city of Shanghai, but
also through its concentration and
radiation
effects, pull the economic development of The
Yangtze River Delta Metropolitan Area
and East
China. On the other hand, from the World Expo
history, we can found that, as a costly
project, the Expo will also bring the host
country and the host city certain risks. These
risks
include the operational risks of Expo
itself, for example, the financial losses may
occur; also
include the risk of the failure of
positive external effects, such as the failures of
playing an
important role in promoting
regional economic integration and industrial
restructuring. Thus,
hosting the Expo, the
opportunities and risks coexist.